Spring has barely arrived, but Melbourne is already warming up. The city will hit 22°C on Tuesday, 1st September, as unusually warm air sweeps across southeastern Australia to usher in the new season.
That is almost five degrees above Melbourne’s average September maximum of 17.3°C, a visible start to the new season after an exceptionally mild winter.
And Tuesday could be a particularly warm one for the city. The Bureau of Meteorology predicts Melbourne will record its warmest first day of spring in five years.
“What’s notable is just how warm it will be this week,” a Bureau spokesman said. “We are expecting the warmest first day of spring for Melbourne and Canberra in five years, and for Hobart, the warmest first day of spring in 13 years.”
Melbourne is kicking off spring with a warm day
Tuesday’s forecast calls for a top of 22°C in Melbourne, although the city could see a shower or two as a cold front moves through. Temperatures will fall to around 12°C overnight. Warm north-westerly winds will sweep across southeastern Australia, pushing temperatures around five degrees above normal on the first day of spring.
Adelaide is also forecast to reach 22°C, while Hobart could hit 19°C and Canberra 20°C. But Melbourne’s warmth won’t stay put, with a cooler westerly change expected to sweep through by Wednesday.
The spring warmth comes after Melbourne experienced its warmest winter on record. The city’s mean winter temperature sat at 12.2°C, just 0.8°C below Sydney’s historic winter climate.
Other parts of Australia also experienced an unusually mild winter. Sydney also recorded its warmest winter on record, while Canberra had its hottest and Hobart its second warmest. Adelaide and Brisbane also ranked among their warmest winters on record.
Melbourne’s winter stood out for both its warmth and lack of seriously cold days. Across the east coast, temperatures remained consistently above average, with fewer of the sharp cold outbreaks that usually bring a taste of winter to Victoria.
A warm spring could be on the way
For all of those hoping Melbourne’s 22°C day is just a one-off, the longer-range forecast suggests otherwise.
Weather modelling is forecasting an unusually warm spring across southern Australia, with the Bureau of Meteorology’s ACCESS-S model tipping temperatures between 2°C and 3°C above the 1981–2018 baseline across large parts of the south.
Minimum temperatures will also sit unusually high, with roughly two-thirds of Australia facing an 80% or greater chance of recording temperatures in the warmest 20% of years.
However, the factors behind the warmth are complex. Natural variability and climate change are contributing, alongside an extreme El Niño event and a notable lack of cold fronts arriving from the Southern Ocean.
Sydney will reach at least 20°C every day for the next seven days, while Brisbane will climb to 31°C by Thursday before hitting 32°C over the weekend. For Melbourne, though, the first taste of spring heat will be brief, with cooler weather already waiting to move in.
